International trade expert provides insights and input for Ohio business leaders
If it is the Friday in February closest to Groundhog Day, there is sure to be a large gathering of business owners from all over northeast Ohio at Kent State University Tuscarawas for the annual Groundhog Day International Trade Forecast Breakfast. This year, on Feb. 4, a packed house greeted guest speaker Michael Weidokal, research and development director of ISA, International Strategic Analysis, a world leader in country intelligence, economic forecasting, and business advisory services.
The Groundhog Day breakfast is the highlight of the year for those who regularly attend the International Trade Association Center (ITAC) educational forums at Kent State Tuscarawas. ITAC works with the Kent Tuscarawas Small Business Development Center to assist business owners with the ongoing development of international trade relationships. Partners for the early morning event included the Tuscarawas County Port Authority, who provided a complimentary breakfast catered by Trax Diner; International Transport Services; and the Small Business Administration.
Weidokal, whose background includes leadership in industry and economic research for PricewaterhouseCoopers in the UK and overseas strategic marketing with the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, provided an extremely informative overview of current economic and political conditions throughout the world that affect the U.S. trade market. He also provided predictions for 2011 and beyond, some of it very promising, and other portions a cause for concern.
“The overall global economy is in a relatively strong economy, but that is mostly due to governmental actions, which raises debt concerns…(the U.S.) debt and deficit levels will remain dangerously high, as the Congress fails to enact needed spending cuts in 2011,” warned the international expert. “The overall deficit worldwide is negative eight percent, which is higher than any time since the WWII era. Recovery will take time. Sustainable levels are around negative two percent.”
Weidokal’s analysis sees difficulties still ahead for the U.S. recovery from a very serious recession. “Inflationary prices are in place, with food and energy prices expected to remain dangerously high in the first half of 2011. A failure to deal with the United States’ long-term debt and deficit problems would result in a reduction in our GDP (gross domestic product) of at least 0.5 percent per year. We see a long, slow recovery (from this recession). For many economies, a return to pre-crisis growth levels will not occur for many years, if ever.”
Globally, Weidokal sees U.S.-China relations as playing a key role. “China’s share of global trade will likely peak in the near future, as it prices itself out of the very low cost production sector,” he said, noting that those jobs will move to other countries. “The U.S. will remain a leading recipient of foreign investment over the long term. The U.S. is very dynamic politically, and changes and shifts are occurring. The greatest threat to global stability comes from a potential U.S.-China showdown for world leadership, as China’s power begins to rival that of the USSR during the Cold War era,” cautioned Weidokal.
The analyst encouraged those in attendance to continue to seek foreign markets. “During this recession, those (companies who were) exporting withstood economic difficulties better than those with only domestic markets.”
Weidokal stated that in North America, natural resources based opportunities will be a significant contributor to the economy, and “the West European economic performance will remain relatively anemic from 2011 to 2015, as it will throughout Europe. There are volatility risks in Kosovo, Albania, etcetera. As to Egypt, the current political unrest is also of concern. If Egypt goes down, there will be a domino effect on the economy.”
“This is the fourth time we have had Mr. Weidokal here,” stated Bob Cohen, a certified business advisor who is director of Ohio ITAC. “Everybody is very impressed by him. It’s real time, practical information that is applicable to their businesses.
“These monthly trade forums happen about 10 times per year, with different helpful topics,” continued Cohen. “We welcome anyone interested to attend.”
Information about the ITAC forums is available by contacting Cohen at 419-525-1614, or at bcohen@braintreepartners.org. The ITAC website is http://www.ohioitac.org.
The Groundhog Day breakfast is the highlight of the year for those who regularly attend the International Trade Association Center (ITAC) educational forums at Kent State Tuscarawas. ITAC works with the Kent Tuscarawas Small Business Development Center to assist business owners with the ongoing development of international trade relationships. Partners for the early morning event included the Tuscarawas County Port Authority, who provided a complimentary breakfast catered by Trax Diner; International Transport Services; and the Small Business Administration.
Weidokal, whose background includes leadership in industry and economic research for PricewaterhouseCoopers in the UK and overseas strategic marketing with the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, provided an extremely informative overview of current economic and political conditions throughout the world that affect the U.S. trade market. He also provided predictions for 2011 and beyond, some of it very promising, and other portions a cause for concern.
“The overall global economy is in a relatively strong economy, but that is mostly due to governmental actions, which raises debt concerns…(the U.S.) debt and deficit levels will remain dangerously high, as the Congress fails to enact needed spending cuts in 2011,” warned the international expert. “The overall deficit worldwide is negative eight percent, which is higher than any time since the WWII era. Recovery will take time. Sustainable levels are around negative two percent.”
Weidokal’s analysis sees difficulties still ahead for the U.S. recovery from a very serious recession. “Inflationary prices are in place, with food and energy prices expected to remain dangerously high in the first half of 2011. A failure to deal with the United States’ long-term debt and deficit problems would result in a reduction in our GDP (gross domestic product) of at least 0.5 percent per year. We see a long, slow recovery (from this recession). For many economies, a return to pre-crisis growth levels will not occur for many years, if ever.”
Globally, Weidokal sees U.S.-China relations as playing a key role. “China’s share of global trade will likely peak in the near future, as it prices itself out of the very low cost production sector,” he said, noting that those jobs will move to other countries. “The U.S. will remain a leading recipient of foreign investment over the long term. The U.S. is very dynamic politically, and changes and shifts are occurring. The greatest threat to global stability comes from a potential U.S.-China showdown for world leadership, as China’s power begins to rival that of the USSR during the Cold War era,” cautioned Weidokal.
The analyst encouraged those in attendance to continue to seek foreign markets. “During this recession, those (companies who were) exporting withstood economic difficulties better than those with only domestic markets.”
Weidokal stated that in North America, natural resources based opportunities will be a significant contributor to the economy, and “the West European economic performance will remain relatively anemic from 2011 to 2015, as it will throughout Europe. There are volatility risks in Kosovo, Albania, etcetera. As to Egypt, the current political unrest is also of concern. If Egypt goes down, there will be a domino effect on the economy.”
“This is the fourth time we have had Mr. Weidokal here,” stated Bob Cohen, a certified business advisor who is director of Ohio ITAC. “Everybody is very impressed by him. It’s real time, practical information that is applicable to their businesses.
“These monthly trade forums happen about 10 times per year, with different helpful topics,” continued Cohen. “We welcome anyone interested to attend.”
Information about the ITAC forums is available by contacting Cohen at 419-525-1614, or at bcohen@braintreepartners.org. The ITAC website is http://www.ohioitac.org.
Published: February 8, 2011
